Recently, many Chinese investors woke up this morning to pay attention to the first, may be the trend of international oil prices and U.S. stocks. However, international oil prices hit record highs, the Dow has record low, making them worried incessantly. < br> In fact, although oil prices and the stock market and economic growth are closely related, but not directly related. Generally speaking, as the economy has entered a growth cycle, oil prices,UGG shoes, stock prices will also heat up. However, when oil prices are too high, they will affect economic growth. In this regard, the stock market will react in advance. According to expert estimates, the current round of international oil prices reached 100 U.S. dollars / barrel, which means inflation and economic environment has become difficult to reach 140 U.S. dollars / barrel or even higher, it means that the oil crisis in the world has.
history, the first oil crisis occurred in 1973 around. At that time, international oil prices from $ 3 / rushed to $ 11.65 a barrel / barrel, causing the United States economic stagnation. U.S. Standard & Poor's index fell to 117.44 in 1972 to 69.72 points in 1974, down 40%; the Nikkei 225 index points from 1972 to 5236 fell to 3764 points in 1974, down 29%.
the second oil crisis occurred between 1979 and 1981. At that time, the following international oil prices soared from $ 20 to 39 dollars / barrel. the United States had once occurred up to 15% inflation, the Dow Jones index remained stable or even increased slightly, until the mid-1980s, a slump; Nikkei Index from 1978 to 5000 point rise in August 1981 about the 8019 point, before entering a callback.
third oil crisis (due to an sudden, short time, there is still debate on the definition) occurred before and after 1990. At that time, the international oil price from 20 dollars / barrel soared to 42 dollars / barrel. the United States only in 1991 and the subsequent emergence of -0.47 % of the slightly negative growth, stock market volatility is not obvious; while the Nikkei index in December 1989 hit a record high of 38,915 points, after a decade-long slump there. Of course, this is more due to bubble in the real economy , the relationship with the oil crisis is not obvious.
Overall, these three crises, only the first two a greater impact on the real economy, and only the first stage of the crisis led to adjustment of the stock market.
and there are similarities between the current situation is exactly the first oil crisis .1970 to 1980, the two crises is behind a real cycle of oil prices, along with Japan, the rise of emerging industrial countries. Japan in 1964 Olympic Games, to the late 1960s, GDP has been among the world's second between .1963 and 1973, average annual GDP growth of 10% in Japan, the Nikkei 225 index rose from around 1400 to 5236 points. By 1973, the Japanese economy began to into the heavy industrialization .1974 wholesale prices in Japan rose by 31.4%, consumer prices rose by 24.3%. In order to curb high prices, the Japanese government adopted a tight monetary policy credibility, which causes a large number of surplus products, industrial output fell sharply in Japan .1974 industrial output decreased by 20%, 130 million people out of work, there has been economic stagnation.
in the first oil crisis, Japan's industrial transformation has been completely. From the mid-1970s to early 1980s, Japan has not only before Other developed countries out of the oil crisis, and its production of energy-saving appliances, automobiles and other products quickly occupied the world market, as the capitalist world's economic leader in .1980, Japan already has many of the world's top companies, the average family Taiwan already has a car.
surprisingly similar history, today's China has also been among the world's fourth, is about to host the Olympic Games, also in the middle of the heavy industry phase of industrialization, is also facing rising oil prices brought about the crisis facing the industry are also upgrading and transformation, but also put forward similar to the Japanese concept of energy conservation policies and strategies, for example,bailey UGG boots, ;, and so on. So, China can succeed? China's Shanghai Composite Index can be like the Nikkei, as the impact from the first oil crisis of 3500, after the second multi-point climb to more than 8,000 points before the crisis, and continues to soar to nearly 40,000 points up?
course not simply repeating history. round the oil crisis is a big difference is that technological advances mm we do not know whether the same as the year to solve the energy shortage problem. However, oil The price certainly will not go up indefinitely, it will not become China's growth ; Second, the global economic slowdown will ultimately lead to decreased demand for oil; Third, oil prices will curb demand, promote conservation and improve efficiency; Fourth, high oil prices to a certain extent,Bailey UGG boots, will stimulate the development of alternative energy industry.
In short, despite the alarming rise in oil prices is likely to last for a long period of time at a high level,UGGs, but this will not affect China's core competitiveness. This is because China's own stage of development of the historical necessity; another , China's comprehensive strength, the demographic dividend, institutional reform, the advantage and other factors still exist; Furthermore, China has more than Japan's vast domestic market, but also rich in natural resources (eg, coal); In addition, high oil prices spurred the rise of the new energy industry not only to defuse the crisis, but also bring economic growth itself.
therefore, reason to believe that the Chinese stock market through a difficult period, will then climb into a period of and even a larger, more spectacular surge period. time to look back to see the Chinese stock market
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